(When everyone's paying attention to the primary, it's important to remember Steve's race. Thanks! - promoted by Aimee Fausser)
Since there has recently been some debate about Steve Shannon's relative strength in his district as compared to other candidates it seems that it would be a useful exercise to put these numbers in some context. Here is the link to the article in question http://bit.ly/AuNEz
Running for an open seat in 2003, Steve Shannon increased democratic performance in the 35th Delegate district (which had been held by a Republican for 14 of the last 15 years) from 41% in 2001 to 52% in 2003. That difference exceeds any advantage that incumbency could possibly give. In fact, Shannon outran the district's DPI by nearly 6% in 2003 and was just barely behind the totals garnered by Gerry Connolly, an experienced politician running for County Chairman as heir apparent against a weak opponent. What's important to note here is that the old statement about elections having consequences, applies here in that over the next six years, Fairfax County democrats in the 35th district, led by Steve Shannon, have increased the district DPI by over ten points and changed it to such an extent that a Democrat running for this seat is now viewed as a heavy favorite to win it in the fall.
In 2005, Steve Shannon was running his first re-election campaign against the former Republican candidate for Providence District Supervisor and Former Fairfax Republican Chairman Jim Hyland. This is a race that is a top takeover target of House Republicans and of Tom Davis (who sees Shannon as a potential threat to his wife's hold on the 34th District Senate seat). In this context, running at the top of the 35th district ballot were three experienced candidates.
· Former U.S. Rep. Leslie Byrne running for Lieutenant Governor, was also a former State Senator who had represented the 35th both in Congress and the State Senate (but not been voted on for her Senate seat by most of the 35th)
· An experienced State Senator named Creigh Deeds running for Attorney General, who has in recent weeks once again demonstrated his appeal to the voters.
· Then Lt. Governor Kaine who in addition to having had the benefit of months of advertising, was running against a man who had chosen to invoke Hitler in his arguments about the death penalty.
These were all strong candidates running solid campaigns in the heart of Fairfax County.
To do a fair analysis and to account for the varying vote totals in the different races (the most election day votes were cast in the Delegate race and it would be impossible to compare the absentee totals as there is no breakout of what the absentee vote was in the 35th for the L.G., A.G. and Governors races) it seems that the best way to make an apples to apples comparison would be to compare the two party vote of the candidates in these four races. Each of the four candidates was exceptionally strong in the 35th, yet Steve Shannon got the second highest percentage of any candidate in the district. The breakdown in descending order of two party vote-share was:
1. Kaine - 61.7%
2. Shannon - 60.3%
3. Byrne - 58.6%
4. Deeds - 57.8%
These were all very strong performances by excellent candidates, but Shannon's relative strength should be telling to observers.
Shannon's relative strength increased again in 2007 when compared to now-Congressman Connolly and even Chap Peterson (who had run a spectacular campaign for VA. Senate) and this despite giving away $80,000 to help other Democrats, including Chap, win their campaigns.
To make a fair comparison, it's extremely important to acknowledge that both Shannon and Connolly had token opposition, in their race and Peterson was running against an incumbent (a good rule of thumb is that incumbency generally adds five points to an incumbents total). The totals in the 35th district were now a little better for all Democrats, but the order changed:
1. Shannon - 63.5% (63.8% in 34th Senate District Precincts)
2. Connolly - 61.5% (61.4% in 34th Senate District Precincts)
3. Peterson - 53.7%
What's important to note is that Shannon now runs ahead of Congressman Connolly in his re-election race, and runs significantly better than Senator Peterson even when accounting for the boost incumbency gives to JMDD. To be fair, however it must be acknowledged that Chap also had the highest quality opponent in the group which is no doubt responsible for a large part of the adjusted differential between his and Shannon's percentages in the 35th. At the same time, it should be noted that of the neighboring candidates who had outperformed Shannon's 2005 total while running against Republican extremists who had knocked off incumbents in primaries, the only candidate who had opposition saw his vote share decrease in 2007.
To sum up, one conclusion that a reasonable observer could reach is that while Shannon started as a candidate with similar relative strength as compared to more experienced candidates, over the years as he has grown in experience and accomplishment, his relative strength has grown to a point where he is now the strongest candidate in his constituency as compared with those who overlap the 35th district.
The bottom line on this whole analysis is that Shannon is the Democratic Nominee for Attorney General; our time is better spent fighting the 2009 election to make sure that we pick the right candidate to protect Virginians from criminals who target us in the streets, and in our bank accounts, than arguing over who did best in earlier elections. That is a sure recipe for Attorney General Cuccinelli, and none of us want that. |
