TOPLINES
PPP (740 LV, 3/27-29)
GOV TOPLINES
03/30 03/01 02/01
Moran 22 19 18
McAuliffe 18 21 18
Deeds 15 14 11
Undec. 45 46 53
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
03/30 03/01
Wagner 21 9
Bowerbank 4 2
Edmonson 4 6
Signer 4 5
Savage - 4
Undec. 67 73
FAV/UNFAV
03/30 03/01 02/01
Moran 34/15 30/14 34/10
McAuliffe 32/29 31/24 30/24
Deeds 31/12 26/10 23/11
AREA CODES
276 434 540 703 757 804
SAMPLE % 5 9 18 28 21 19
Moran 6 10 18 41 16 13
McAuliffe 19 13 19 16 16 25
Deeds 7 30 25 11 10 12
Undecided 68 47 39 32 58 50
Brian Moran's crushing 25-point margin in Northern Virginia and his tie with McAuliffe in Hampton Roads has propelled him to a 4-point lead with only 69 days to go to the primary. While 45% remain undecided, two-thirds of undecideds (for 30% of the total electorate) live in the three urban-based area codes (703, 757, and 804), leaving Creigh Deeds little room to maneuver if he is unable to gain traction outside of rural areas.
Despite outraising and outspending the other two candidates, Terry McAuliffe has been unable to gain discernable results in the last month in the areas he needs most--urban and suburban voters who live outside of Northern Virginia. Even though McAuliffe leads in Richmond, his inability to fight off Moran in Hampton Roads leaves him vulernable to Moran's Northern Virginia base.
In the Lieutenant Governor primary, Jody Wagner has opened up a 17-point lead, sending her racing past the rest of the pack.
As I've been saying all along, this primary will be fought in Hampton Roads. 58% of Hampton Roads voters are undecided--making up 12% of the entire electorate! Among black voters, which make up a large chunk of Richmond and Hampton Roads, Moran leads 15-14 over McAuliffe, with Deeds trailing at 11.
UPDATE 1: TERRY'S INDEPENDENT PROBLEM. It's worth noting that while Creigh Deeds trails in most of the state, he leads among Independents 21-19 over Brian Moran, with Terry McAuliffe trailing at 12. Both Deeds and Moran have positive favorability among Independents (30-13 for Moran and 29-9 for Deeds), while McAuliffe has negative favorability (21 fav/34 unfav). It's bad news to have negative favorability among any demographic group, especially when there are so many undecideds. Conclusion: most independents haven't picked, but among those that have examined the race, they already don't like Terry. |
