| Conventional wisdom holds that Terry McAuliffe will do best in Northern Virginia and split off votes from Alexandria's Brian Moran. When McAuliffe released his first radio ad this morning, he didn't air it in Northern Virginia to reach Democrat-rich Arlington or Alexandria. On the surface, this would appear to be a strategic blunder. According to the campaign, it's running on "adult urban contemporary, gospel, and religious radio stations in the Norfolk and Richmond." Why? Money might have been a factor--airtime in the Washington media market is expensive--but that's not something McAuliffe is expected to be short on. The real reason is that McAuliffe needs the black vote. This statewide primary comes with a peculiar twist of fate that will affect the electoral calculus--of the 6 candidates involved in primaries, not one is black. When a black candidate runs in a statewide Democratic primary, the black vote moves nearly in lockstep to them, and turnout in black localities shoots up. The net effect of this was to dilute the vote of Northern Virginia. By gunning for support in black areas, McAuliffe has a shot at overcoming Moran's base in Northern Virginia. Below, I define Northern Virginia to include everything inside Loudoun and Prince William counties. Percentage of Primary Electorate Held by Northern Virginia 2001 14.5%
2005 30.5%
2006 41.1% Why the disparity? In 2001, there was a black candidate driving up turnout in Southside, Hampton Roads, and Richmond, and no candidate from Northern Virginia. In 2005, there were two candidates from Northern Virginia and one black candidate, with one candidate locking up Southwest. In 2006, there were no black candidates, and two candidates from Northern Virginia. What does this mean? With no black candidate and two candidates hailing from Northern Virginia, the primary electorate looks right now more like 2006 than 2001. In 2006, Jim Webb won Northern Virginia, and was able to overcome losing black areas to the south and rural areas to the southwest. If the 2009 electorate distribution resembles 2006, and Moran wins the huge Northern Virginia bloc and Hampton Roads, the nomination is his. However, if McAuliffe heavily targets black areas like he seems to be doing, he can shift the electorate distribution closer to 2005 by bumping up otherwise depressed turnout, which would dilute Moran's base and put him over the top. Who's the biggest loser? Creigh Deeds can't afford to have high turnout in Northern Virginia or Richmond. If he was running with 2001's electorate, he would be running away to victory right now. He stands a fighting chance with a strong grasp on the Charlottesville area, but he cannot win without significant inroads into one of the state's major urban areas. |
