The Great Collapse

by: Kenton Ngo

Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 11:25:03 PM EDT

The above map from the Bureau of Labor Statistics isn't particularly news. Unemployment has shot up across the state, but roughly in proportion to the amount of unemployment already existing before the recession began. That is to say, well-off areas (Fairfax) are continuing to be relatively fine.

The city of Martinsville isn't so lucky, leading the state with an astonishing 21.9% unemployment rate. One out of every five residents of Martinsville is unemployed, a level unseen for 18 years.

On an abstract level, the current economic meltdown could be great news for Republican nominee for Governor Bob McDonnell. As the standardbearer of the minority party, McDonnell is free to pin every disaster on Barack Obama and the Democrats that were sent to office with the help of suddenly Democratic Virginia.

This might work had Virginia Republicans not taken their finger and stuck it in the eye of Virginia's unemployed by standing alone in the House of Delegates and turning away $125 million in stimulus money for Virginia's unemployed. Tax cuts  won't do Martinsville any good--the unemployed aren't paying taxes anyway.

The populist pitchfork rebellion hasn't started yet--but it will soon. It's one thing to bash Obama's economic recovery plan to an audience that is merely having some trouble paying off credit card debt. It's another thing to have nearly a fifth of the entire City of Martinsville used as political pawns in a game of "Hide the Stimulus".

Not schadenfreude at all...

by: snolan

Thu Jun 25, 2009 at 10:47:34 AM EDT

There is no joy in the broken hearts and damaged relationships.  No joy in the dishonesty, the deceit, the contempt, the lack of respect for their partners and voters.  No joy in the hypocrisy that both of these Republicans pilloried then Democratic President Bill Clinton when he was caught having an affair in the 1990s, and now both have participated in the very same activity that they themselves claimed was reprehensible and grounds for impeachment.  

Health Care '09 - DC Rally - 6/25

by: Riley Murray

Sat Jun 20, 2009 at 10:17:02 AM EDT

Come to Washington, DC - June 25th, 2009

On June 25th, 2009, thousands of grassroots people will descend on Washington, DC to lobby every Member of Congress in support of quality, affordable health care for all. We will also have a rally at 11:30 in Upper Senate Park and following there will be lobby activities in various locations.

HD38 Primary

by: Kenton Ngo

Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 11:07:27 AM EDT

Why I'm Enthusiastically Casting My Vote For Creigh Deeds Tomorrow

by: Johnny Camacho

Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 11:26:56 PM EDT

I surveyed the room. It was earlier in the morning than most of the individuals packed into the restaurant would have preferred (myself included), which was clearly conveyed on their exhausted faces. However, one face in the room, more so than any other, seemed immune to fatigue. The face was Sen. Creigh Deeds'.

From the moment Creigh Deeds walked through the doors, the room belonged to him. As he moved through the crowd, he shook hands, fielded questions, and expertly engaged himself in conversation with every attendee that he encountered as though they were among his oldest friends (of course, given Creigh's personal background in the Alleghany Highlands, it's quite possible that they were). I've seen good politicians "work a room" before, but this was different.

While observing Creigh that morning, I didn't get the sense that I was watching a politician at "work." I would liken what I saw more to an accomplished pianist playing a difficult composition. The pianist's actions may be methodical, and his skill may be the result of years of practice, but there is undeniable sincerity in his performance. It's the kind of sincerity that can only come from a genuine passion for something. And there's no doubt that Creigh is passionate about public service.

Steve Shannon: NOT a Myth

by: DanielK

Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 03:50:40 AM EDT

Running for an open seat in 2003, Steve Shannon increased democratic performance in the 35th Delegate district (which had been held by a Republican for 14 of the last 15 years) from 41% in 2001 to 52% in 2003.  That difference exceeds any advantage that incumbency could possibly give.  In fact, Shannon outran the district's DPI by nearly 6% in 2003 and was just barely behind the totals garnered by Gerry Connolly, an experienced politician running for County Chairman as heir apparent against a weak opponent.  What's important to note here is that the old statement about elections having consequences, applies here in that over the next six years, Fairfax County democrats in the 35th district, led by Steve Shannon, have increased the district DPI by over ten points and changed it to such an extent that a Democrat running for this seat is now viewed as a heavy favorite to win it in the fall.

In 2005, Steve Shannon was running his first re-election campaign against the former Republican candidate for Providence District Supervisor and Former Fairfax Republican Chairman Jim Hyland.  This is a race that is a top takeover target of House Republicans and of Tom Davis (who sees Shannon as a potential threat to his wife's hold on the 34th District Senate seat).  In this context, running at the top of the 35th district ballot were three experienced candidates.

·          Former U.S. Rep. Leslie Byrne running for Lieutenant Governor, was also a former State Senator who had represented the 35th both in Congress and the State Senate (but not been voted on for her Senate seat by most of the 35th)

·         An experienced State Senator named Creigh Deeds running for Attorney General, who has in recent weeks once again demonstrated his appeal to the voters.

·         Then Lt. Governor Kaine who in addition to having had the benefit of months of advertising, was running against a man who had chosen to invoke Hitler in his arguments about the death penalty.

These were all strong candidates running solid campaigns in the heart of Fairfax County.

To do a fair analysis and to account for the varying vote totals in the different races (the most election day votes were cast in the Delegate race and it would be impossible to compare the absentee totals as there is no breakout of what the absentee vote was in the 35th for the L.G., A.G. and Governors races) it seems that the best way to make an apples to apples comparison would be to compare the two party vote of the candidates in these four races.  Each of the four candidates was exceptionally strong in the 35th, yet Steve Shannon got the second highest percentage of any candidate in the district.  The breakdown in descending order of two party vote-share was:

1.      Kaine - 61.7%

2.      Shannon - 60.3%

3.      Byrne - 58.6%

4.      Deeds - 57.8%

These were all very strong performances by excellent candidates, but Shannon's relative strength should be telling to observers.

Shannon's relative strength increased again in 2007 when compared to now-Congressman Connolly and even Chap Peterson (who had run a spectacular campaign for VA. Senate) and this despite giving away $80,000 to help other Democrats, including Chap, win their campaigns.

To make a fair comparison, it's extremely important to acknowledge that both Shannon and Connolly had token opposition, in their race and Peterson was running against an incumbent (a good rule of thumb is that incumbency generally adds five points to an incumbents total).  The totals in the 35th district were now a little better for all Democrats, but the order changed:

1.       Shannon - 63.5% (63.8% in 34th Senate District Precincts)

2.       Connolly - 61.5% (61.4% in 34th Senate District Precincts)

3.       Peterson - 53.7%

What's important to note is that Shannon now runs ahead of Congressman Connolly in his re-election race, and runs significantly better than Senator Peterson even when accounting for the boost incumbency gives to JMDD.  To be fair, however it must be acknowledged that Chap also had the highest quality opponent in the group which is no doubt responsible for a large part of the adjusted differential between his and Shannon's percentages in the 35th.  At the same time, it should be noted that of the neighboring candidates who had outperformed Shannon's 2005 total while running against Republican extremists who had knocked off incumbents in primaries, the only candidate who had opposition saw his vote share decrease in 2007.

To sum up, one conclusion that a reasonable observer could reach is that while Shannon started as a candidate with similar relative strength as compared to more experienced candidates, over the years as he has grown in experience and accomplishment, his relative strength has grown to a point where he is now the strongest candidate in his constituency as compared with those who overlap the 35th district.

The bottom line on this whole analysis is that Shannon is the Democratic Nominee for Attorney General; our time is better spent fighting the 2009 election to make sure that we pick the right candidate to protect Virginians from criminals who target us in the streets, and in our bank accounts, than arguing over who did best in earlier elections.  That is a sure recipe for Attorney General Cuccinelli, and none of us want that.  

The Washington Post Endorsement: Creigh's Kiss of Death

by: Kenton Ngo

Sun Jun 07, 2009 at 07:17:07 PM EDT

This might not be as smart as it seems.

Buried deep inside last week's Suffolk University poll of the governor's race was a question:

Q18. On May 22nd the Washington Post endorsed Creigh Deeds in the Democratic Primary for Governor. Knowing this, will you be more likely or less likely to vote for Creigh Deeds?

Shockingly, 23% said more likely--and 21% less likely. Even worse, in Northern Virginia, where the Post is the paper of record, 22% said more likely, and 33% said less likely. The Washington Post editorials are, apparently, so distrusted by the Democratic primary electorate, that more voters want to vote against Creigh after his endorsement!

Since Deeds has been touting this endorsement in Northern Virginia and not the rest of the state, we can almost safely ignore the results of this question outside of Northern Virginia. Because the Washington Post is seen as a paper that is a fount of establishment-supporting editorials and aggravating center-right stances (the Post was a chief cheerleader in the run-up to the Iraq War), it seems that Deeds is spending the closing hours of his campaign touting an albatross around his neck in the most vote-rich region of the state.

It's worth noting that Fairfax County resident Harris Miller received the Post endorsement prior to his 2006 primary against Jim Webb, and was destroyed all across Northern Virginia.

Full crosstabs. Northern VA is listed as "NE VA" in the crosstabs, however, it is defined here as Prince William and Loudoun inbound towards DC.